Global Market Financial Weekly Report:
December 2024, Week 3
Dive into the latest global market trends, economic shifts, and financial insights for the third week of December 2024. From Federal Reserve policy changes to cryptocurrency surges, this report covers the key events shaping the world's financial landscape.
Citation: BBC News、NASDAQ News
Federal Reserve Policy Signals Caution
4.25%
Interest Rate Cut
Fed reduced rates to 4.25%-4.5%
2.7%
November Inflation
Remains elevated
4.59%
10-Year Treasury
Highest in six months
The Fed's decision to lower rates while warning of slower cuts in 2025 reflects a delicate balance between inflation control and economic stability. This cautious stance caused market turbulence, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing sharp declines. The Fed's challenge lies in addressing persistent price pressures without derailing growth.
EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Faces French Resistance
French Opposition
France fiercely opposes the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, citing risks to its agriculture industry. This resistance has led to protests in Paris, reflecting mounting tensions over the deal's potential impact on domestic sectors.
EU Divisions
The episode reveals deep divisions within the EU over balancing trade liberalization with protecting local industries. As France seeks allies to block the deal, it underscores the friction between free trade ambitions and national interests.
Bitcoin's Record High

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$106,000+ Peak
Bitcoin surges past $106,000

2

Pro-Crypto Policies
Anticipation of Trump administration support

3

National Cryptocurrency Reserve
Speculation fuels rally
Bitcoin's meteoric rise marks a significant milestone, driven by market optimism surrounding pro-crypto policies expected under Trump's administration. Proposals for a national cryptocurrency reserve and appointments of crypto advocates have fueled speculative buying. Despite bullish sentiment, critics warn of potential volatility reminiscent of past bubbles.
Amazon Labor Unrest Intensifies
1
Teamsters Threat
Union threatens nationwide strikes
2
Holiday Season Impact
Potential disruptions during peak period
3
Corporate Accountability
Growing calls for improved labor practices
The Teamsters union's threat of nationwide strikes over unsafe working conditions places Amazon under intense scrutiny. With the holiday season at its peak, disruptions could have far-reaching implications for the company's logistics operations and profitability. This labor unrest adds to growing calls for corporate accountability in labor practices.
Asian Automakers Respond to EV Competition
Potential Merger
Honda and Nissan explore merger possibilities
EV Challenge
Response to China's dominant EV industry
Industry Consolidation
Trend of partnerships to remain competitive
Talks of a potential merger between Honda and Nissan emerged as both companies faced challenges from China's dominant EV industry. This strategic move reflects industry-wide shifts towards consolidation to counter competitive pressures. Analysts remain cautious, noting potential challenges related to existing alliances and differing corporate cultures.
Global Market Review
U.S. Equities
Nasdaq and S&P 500 lost momentum amid Fed concerns
European Markets
Slight gains due to improved inflation data
Asian Markets
Struggled under China's property sector woes
Commodities
Cocoa prices spiked, crude oil declined
Global markets displayed mixed performance throughout the week, reflecting varied responses to geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. European markets were tempered by subdued business confidence in Germany, while Asian markets faced challenges from Japan's trade imbalances.
U.S. Economic Data Analysis

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GDP Revision
Q3 GDP revised upward to 3.1%, driven by consumer spending and labor market strength

2

Retail Sales
November saw a 0.7% increase, underscoring consumer resilience despite inflationary pressures

3

Housing Market
Building permits rose 6.1% to a nine-month high, indicating robust future construction
European Economic Indicators

Inflation Eases
Eurozone inflation decreased to 2.2%, while core inflation remained steady at 2.7%

Business Sentiment Declines
Germany's IFO index fell to its lowest in 4.5 years, signaling ongoing economic challenges
Asian Economic Landscape
China's Challenges
Continued struggles in the property market weighed on economic recovery, impacting overall growth prospects in the region
Japan's Trade Imbalance
Exports grew 3.8% year-over-year, but trade imbalances persisted, reflecting global demand constraints and economic uncertainties
Stock Market Outlook
1
U.S. Equities
Expected to face downward pressure due to Fed's cautious stance
2
European Markets
May see slight improvements due to easing inflation
3
Asian Equities
Remain vulnerable to domestic and geopolitical uncertainties
Bond Market Projections
Treasury Yields
Likely to remain elevated, reflecting investor caution amid reduced rate cut expectations for 2025
European Bonds
May experience volatility as the ECB adjusts its policy stance
Commodities Market Forecast
Energy
Crude oil prices could remain subdued due to weak demand forecasts
Agriculture
Cocoa prices likely to stay elevated, grains may stabilize as export signals improve
Precious Metals
Gold and silver may face pressure from a strong dollar and high bond yields
Forex Market Predictions

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U.S. Dollar Strength
Poised to maintain strength

2

Euro Risks
Faces downside risks

3

Yen Challenges
Dovish monetary stance impact
The U.S. dollar is expected to maintain its strength, bolstered by strong economic data and hawkish Fed policies. The euro and yen face downside risks due to weak economic signals and dovish monetary stances in their respective regions.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

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Complex Global Economy
This week encapsulated the global economy's complexities, from monetary policy recalibrations to geopolitical tensions

2

Uneven Recovery Path
U.S. economy shows resilience, while challenges persist in Europe and Asia

3

Investment Strategy
Maintain a diversified approach, balancing growth sectors with caution against macroeconomic volatility

4

Key Focus Areas
Strategic focus on central bank policies and geopolitical developments crucial for navigating the final weeks of 2024